More sellers may finally be jumping into the market at a time when buyers are facing the challenges of low inventory. Since 2013, new listing activity has been subdued relative to buyer activity and hasn’t surpassed 9,000 new listings per month since 2010. Excluding 2010, we haven’t had this many new listings for any month since May 2008. Increasing seller activity and tapering demand are consistent with a marketplace that’s starting to loosen up just a bit. That said, buyers shopping this spring and summer will still face stiff competition. Being successful in this market takes commitment, decisiveness and persistence—traits not necessarily typical of every buyer. In fact, May marked the sixth consecutive month of year-over-year declines in closed sales, likely reflecting the lack of homes for sale and not weakness in the economy. Strong demand combined with low supply means sellers yielded an average of 100.2 percent of their list price in May, a record high for any month and the first time this indicator has exceeded 100.0 percent. The shortage is especially noticeable at the entry-level prices, where multiple offers and homes selling for over list price have become increasingly common. Homes continue to sell quickly and for close to or above list price in this tight market, but nearly 12,000 buyers and sellers managed to transact real property last month.

May 2018 by the Numbers (compared to a year ago)

Sellers listed 9,164 properties on the market, a 2.9 percent increase
Buyers closed on 5,739 homes, a 11.3 percent decrease
Inventory levels for May fell 17.8 percent compared to 2017 to 10,403 units
Months Supply of Inventory was down 16.0 percent to 2.1 months
The Median Sales Price rose 8.4 percent to $271,000, a record high
Cumulative Days on Market declined 9.6 percent to 47 days, on average (median of 17)
Changes in Sales activity varied by market segment

Single family sales sank 12.3 percent; condo sales fell 3.5 percent; townhome sales declined 7.5 percent
Traditional sales fell 9.7 percent; foreclosure sales sank 38.1 percent; short sales plummeted 59.7 percent
Previously-owned sales fell 12.4 percent; new construction sales rose 11.1 percent

From The Skinny Blog.

Have you ever wondered to yourself what the home price trendline would look like compared to a hypothetical trendline that starts at the same price in 1990 but increased at a steady and predictable 4% annual growth? Well you’re in luck, because that’s exactly the sort of in-depth market insights that we serve up on a regular basis.

As you can see, recorded average sales prices were well above their trend from 1997 through 2008. The gravity or weight behind the long-term average has an inescapable pull. Some call this return to the average a “reversion to the mean.” There will always be short-term market fluctuations, but the overall long-term direction and growth of the market is upward at around 4-5% per year (before inflation). When we use the 4% figure, prices are only slightly above trend. If we were to use the 5% figure, prices would appear drastically undervalued relative to their long-term average.

The truth, as always, is somewhere in the middle.

*(Note that 2018 data is year-to-date up through April)
From The Skinny Blog.

Housing demand is strong and supply is low. That’s been the story for a few years. But there is some early evidence that things could be starting to loosen up. That said, buyers shopping this spring will still face stiff competition. The lack of inventory combined with rising prices is encouraging some sellers to stay put; however, the move up market offers a bit more inventory. This combined with historically low interest rates creates a perfect opportunity for homeowners looking to move up.

In April, sellers listed 7.2 percent fewer homes on the market—the sixth consecutive month of declines compared to a year ago. Largely due to the shortage, closed sales declined 5.2 percent compared to the prior year. For-sale housing inventory was 25.1 percent lower than April 2017. This shortage, which is particularly acute at the entry-level prices, has created a competitive environment where multiple offers and homes selling for over list price have become more common. Sellers are often receiving strong offers close to their original list price quickly, which can sometimes frustrate home buyers.

New construction closed sales rose 13.2 percent compared to last April. Although single family homes made up about 73.0 percent of all sales, townhomes and condos have seen stronger demand lately. Similarly, previously-owned homes made up about 90.0 percent of sales, but new construction showed a much stronger increase in pending and closed purchase activity. The average time on market is still 53 days, reminding sellers that they still need to stage and price their homes well.

April 2018 by the Numbers (compared to a year ago)
• Sellers listed 7,321 properties on the market, a 7.2 percent decrease
• Buyers closed on 4,635 homes, a 5.2 percent decrease
• Inventory levels for April fell 25.1 percent compared to 2017 to 8,958 units
• Months Supply of Inventory was down 25.0 percent to 1.8 months
• The Median Sales Price rose 8.6 percent to $266,000, a record high for April
• Cumulative Days on Market declined 10.2 percent to 53 days, on average (median of 18)
• Changes in Sales activity varied by market segment

Single family sales declined 6.4 percent; condo sales rose 3.0 percent; townhome sales rose 1.0 percent
Traditional sales fell 2.8 percent; foreclosure sales decreased 43.3 percent; short sales fell 20.0 percent
Previously-owned sales fell 5.6 percent; new construction sales rose 13.2 percent

From The Skinny Blog.

By David Arbit on Wednesday, April 18th, 2018

From colder-than-average temperatures to a record-breaking snow storm, this spring has been anything but normal. While those searching for homes have seen more options since January or February, they’re still seeing fewer options compared to last year. That’s capped sales activity—particularly at the entry-level prices—and the lack of inventory combined with rising prices is encouraging some sellers to hold onto their properties.

In March, sellers listed 17.5 percent fewer homes on the market—the fifth consecutive month of declines compared to a year ago. Largely due to the shortage, closed sales declined 10.3 percent compared to the year prior. For-sale housing inventory was 26.1 percent lower than March 2017, the largest decline in over a year. This shortage has created a competitive environment where multiple offers and homes selling for over list price have become more common.

Sellers are receiving strong offers close to their original list price quickly, which can sometimes frustrate home buyers. New construction closed sales rose 13.1 percent compared to last March. Although single family homes made up about 74.0 percent of all sales, townhomes have enjoyed more resilient demand lately. Similarly, previously-owned homes made up about 89.0 percent of sales but new construction showed a much stronger increase in pending and closed purchase activity.

“We’re seeing some early evidence that the seller’s market could be starting to shift toward a balanced market,” said Kath Hammerseng, President of the Minneapolis Area Association of REALTORS® (MAAR), “When it comes to the long-term health of the housing market, that’s very much a good thing.”

March 2018 by the Numbers (compared to a year ago)

• Sellers listed 6,737 properties on the market, a 17.5 percent decrease
• Buyers closed on 3,978 homes, a 10.3 percent decrease
• Inventory levels for March fell 26.1 percent compared to 2017 to 8,289 units
• Months Supply of Inventory was down 22.7 percent to 1.7 months
• The Median Sales Price rose 9.8 percent to $258,000, a record high for March
• Cumulative Days on Market declined 21.9 percent to 57 days, on average (median of 22)
• Changes in Sales activity varied by market segment:

• • Single family sales fell 9.8 percent; condo sales declined 10.0 percent; townhome sales shrank 9.6 percent
  • Traditional sales fell 7.5 percent; foreclosure sales decreased 39.3 percent; short sales fell 47.3 percent
  • Previously-owned sales fell 11.4 percent; new construction sales rose 13.1 percent

  “Prices continue to rise while market times remain brisk,” said Todd Urbanski, President-Elect of MAAR. “This spring market is shaping to be more buyer-friendly than last year, it’s still a great time to get properties listed.”

  From The Skinny Blog.